The blueprint for Southeast Asian submarine cables has emerged, but governance is the first "cable" that needs to be laid.

From Technical Myth to Governance Reality: The Real Test for ASEAN Subsea Cables

Southeast Asia possesses some of the world's richest renewable energy resources—hydropower in the Mekong subregion, rapidly expanding solar power, and vast offshore wind potential. However, these resources are highly unevenly distributed, and subsea power cables are seen as a key tool to deliver clean electricity from resource-rich areas to demand centers. According to the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III), ASEAN needs to more than double its existing 7.7 GW of interconnection capacity by 2040, adding 18 new interconnection lines. Yet, a recent analysis by Ember points out that the real obstacle to realizing this blueprint is no longer technology, but governance.

Planning, Costs, and Marine Coordination: Three Governance Gaps

European experience shows that the commercial value of subsea interconnection cables is considerable. For example, interconnection lines between the UK and neighboring European countries generate approximately €375 million in trading value annually, which can reach €500 million when including forward trading, capacity value, and ancillary services. However, Southeast Asia's geography—where Indonesia and the Philippines are archipelagic states, and subsea transmission is already used for domestic system integration—means that cross-sea interconnection inherently requires more complex coordination.

The Ember report identifies three interrelated governance gaps:

• Weak Regional Planning Mechanisms: The ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study provides a good foundation for identifying projects, but as projects scale up and become more interdependent, stronger mechanisms for project prioritization and investment sequencing are needed to ensure investments maximize regional system benefits.
• Lack of a Shared Framework for Cost Allocation: Without a unified cost-benefit analysis framework, negotiations for multilateral projects (e.g., the Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines Power Integration Project) can be protracted, increasing transaction costs and extending development timelines.
• Multisectoral Coordination in Marine Governance: Subsea cables traverse territorial seas and exclusive economic zones, overlapping with shipping, fisheries, and telecommunications infrastructure, requiring coordination between energy agencies and maritime, environmental, and other sectors. This greatly expands the range of stakeholders.

Lessons from Europe: Institutional Evolution Requires Sustained Institutions

Europe has about 25 operational subsea power interconnection cables, with a total capacity of approximately 22,290 MW (as of 2025). However, its governance framework was not achieved overnight but evolved through decades of incremental learning and policy adjustments, and remains imperfect. A key lesson is that as complexity grows, institutions with sustained adaptive capacity must be established.

For ASEAN, the existing foundation is not weak. The signing of the "Enhanced ASEAN Power Grid Memorandum of Understanding" in 2025 reflects new political commitment. The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the Heads of ASEAN Power Utilities/Authorities (HAPUA), and the ASEAN Power Grid Consultative Committee (APGCC) provide credible institutional anchors. The opportunity lies in translating these foundations into more operational and sustained mechanisms.

Priority Action: Operationalize the Planning FunctionThe report suggests that the most immediate priority is to make the "ASEAN Power Grid Generation and Transmission Planning Function" truly operational. On this basis, a structured cost-benefit methodology should be established, and a dedicated submarine cable working group should be formed. This requires translating political commitments into daily coordination mechanisms, not just annual meetings.

Philippine Department of Energy Undersecretary Felix William "Wimpy" B. Fuentebella emphasized: "The European experience reveals an important lesson: the success of submarine cables depends not only on technical feasibility, but also on effective coordination in planning, regulation, financing, and ocean governance."

The Next Step in Regional Economic Integration

Submarine cables are not just energy infrastructure; they are a microcosm of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) construction. They strengthen energy security, reduce costs of fossil fuel imports, support the low-carbon transition, and promote cross-border electricity trade — one of the core objectives of regional integration. If governance issues are resolved, ASEAN can leverage abundant renewable energy to form a unified electricity market, attract more clean energy investment, and enhance its competitiveness in the global supply chain.

Conversely, if governance lags, even mature technologies may become mired in negotiations. ASEAN needs to recognize that the first "cable" to be laid is not copper or fiber optic, but governance mechanisms. Only when this "cable" is laid can submarine power cables truly connect Southeast Asia's green future.