ASEAN Energy Security: Building Regional Resilience in Turbulent Times

The Malacca Dilemma: Strategic Vulnerability of the Regional Energy Artery

The Strait of Malacca, as one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, carries most of the oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation for East Asia. For ASEAN member states, this waterway is not only a trade lifeline but also a decisive node for energy security. Any form of disruption—whether pirate attacks, navigation accidents, or deliberate sabotage—will trigger a chain reaction, impacting ASEAN economies that rely on imported fuels. Although alternative routes such as the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait exist, these waterways have lower traffic efficiency and lack the infrastructure to handle large-scale diversions. This means that the current regional energy transit system has structural risks, requiring coastal states to strengthen cooperation, enhance maritime situational awareness, and develop port and energy infrastructure to establish redundancy.

Import Dependence and Renewable Energy Potential: An Imbalanced Energy Structure

Industrialization and urbanization are driving a surge in energy demand in ASEAN countries, but most member states remain heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, making the regional economy vulnerable to international energy price fluctuations and geopolitical crises. At the same time, ASEAN has considerable renewable energy potential: geothermal in Indonesia, hydropower in Laos, solar energy in the Philippines, etc. However, progress in resource development is uneven, with disparities both between countries and across different fuel types. Financing gaps and policy uncertainties further constrain the pace of the transition. To balance the development of regional energy resources, it is necessary to establish regional frameworks—such as the ASEAN Power Grid and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline—enabling countries to share resources and improve efficiency. International partners and green financing mechanisms can complement this.

Supply Chain Integration and the Value-Added Dilemma

As regional industrial chain integration deepens, ASEAN countries face a dual challenge: on the one hand, industrial development drives external demand; on the other hand, most of the export value-added is captured by entities outside the region, especially multinational corporations. Although the region is rich in mineral resources, the proportion of local processing is limited. To reduce vulnerability to external shocks and increase export value-added, ASEAN needs to promote market diversification, develop processing and manufacturing industries, and establish strategic reserve systems. For example, in key mineral areas such as nickel and rare earths, establishing downstream processing capacity through regional joint investment can enhance supply chain autonomy.

Strategic Autonomy and Hedging Strategies in Great Power Competition## Strategic Autonomy and Hedging Strategies in Great Power Competition

The intensification of global great power competition has placed ASEAN at the center of the geo-economic stage. The United States, under the Trump era, turned inward and reduced its engagement in Asia-Pacific affairs, while China expanded its influence in infrastructure, trade, and investment through the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, the "Indo-Pacific strategies" of Japan, India, Australia, and others attempted to offer alternatives. ASEAN member states face economic pressure to choose sides, and thus generally adopt hedging strategies: diversifying external relations, seeking multi-country investment, strengthening regional trade arrangements, and consolidating regional institutions. This pragmatic "non-alignment" approach helps preserve strategic autonomy, but requires internal coordination within the region to avoid being divided and exploited.

Climate Change: Long-term Pressure Amplifying Existing Risks

Climate change is exacerbating structural risks to ASEAN's energy systems and infrastructure. Rising sea levels and an increase in climate-related disasters may threaten coastal refineries, ports, and power plants. The energy transition itself also poses financial challenges, as developing countries need to balance economic growth with sustainability. If progress in response and financing is uneven across countries, it will widen gaps between nations, creating a new imbalance between "early movers" and "laggards." Therefore, all ASEAN countries must formulate and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on the region's energy systems. At the same time, financing mechanisms and policies needed for the transition should be coordinated at the regional level to ensure a fair and resilient transformation.

Outlook: Regional Resilience as the Cornerstone of a Collective Future

The future security landscape of Southeast Asia will increasingly depend on the resilience of energy and economic systems, rather than military security alone. ASEAN must build long-term resilience by strengthening cooperation, deepening connectivity (such as the ASEAN Power Grid and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline), promoting green finance innovation, and establishing regional strategic reserves. In a world of growing fragmentation, only collective action can ensure regional energy security and economic stability. External powers can support this process by investing in green infrastructure and technology transfer, but ASEAN's autonomy and internal coordination will be decisive factors for success.

*This article is based on a regional economic research perspective, drawing on the ERIA (2026) study on ASEAN energy resilience after a Strait of Hormuz disruption and the work of Ergin (2020) on the geopolitics of energy.*